These are two evenly matched teams on paper that met earlier in December in Minnesota who were 3.5 point favorites at home and won the game by 10. Now they meet in the NIT Tournament in New York on a neutral court where MInnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games while Florida State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on neutral court. I'm going with Florida State who is the more physical stronger team, the team that is more likely to get more shots in this game. In the first match up it was the turnovers in a hostile environment for FSU along with sending Minnesota to the line 30+ times and they also allowed Minnesota to shoot over 40% from three.
Minnesota has a solid offense, but their defense is very sketchy ranked 96th in adjusted rankings. I just don't see how they will be able to play enough defense to overcome everything Florida State will throw at them with revenge on their minds. This won't be a hostile environment for Florida State like it was in December.
Texas lost 14-10 on opening day, but I see them rebounding here. The Phillies put 6 lefties in the line up yesterday including a switch hitter and now they have to face a lefty. I expect some tweaks to the line up because of that, but this is a team that was 22nd in OPS vs. LHP last year and 26th in average. Their line up is basically the same and I don't see anything changing as they will struggle against LH starters. Martin Perez held his own last year with a 3.36 ERA at home which is hard to do in Texas.
AJ Burnett is coming off a great year last year, but opening up on the road and in the AL are not his specialties. Burnett has been a solid pitcher when he's in his own ball park in the NL, but here he has to go on the road where he carries a 4.74 ERA over the last 3 years and face a Rangers team that has had some success against him. Over his last 6 starts in Texas dating back to 2008 he has allowed 18 ER in 34 innings. Both Prince Fielder and Beltre have good numbers against him and I don't think he'll get the run support that Cliff Lee got here on Monday.
